Oscar Nomination Predictions

Best Picture:
Brokeback Mountain (Which will be the most nominated film)
Capote
Crash
Good Night, and Good Luck
Walk the Line

The first four are total locks for nominations. Walk the Line could be replaced with Munich, The Constant Gardener, King Kong, or A History of Violence.

Best Actor:
Philip Seymoure Hoffman - Capote (who will win the Award on March 5)
Heath Ledger - Brokeback Mountain
David Strathairn - Good Night, and Good Luck(and how cool was Hoffman giving Strathairn mad respect at the SAG awards Sunday night?)
Joaquin Phoenix - Walk the Line
Russell Crowe - Cinderella Man

The first four are sure things. Crowe is actually a coin flip and may lose that spot to Terrence Howard for Hustle and Flow as he has been getting all the right kind of buzz and has been by my understanding being talked about by all the right people.

Best Actress:
Reese Witherspoon - Walk the Line (She is a lock to win the award)
Felicity Huffman - Transamerica
Judi Dench - Mrs. Henderson Presents
Charlize Theron - North Country
Kiera Knightley - Pride and Prejudice

Again the first four are sure things for a nomination, but the fifth spot is a dead heat between Knightley and Ziyi Zhang for Memoirs of a Geisha.

Best Director:
Ang Lee - Brokeback Mountain
George Clooney - Good Night, and Good Luck
Paul Haggis - Crash
Bennett Miller - Capote
Steven Spielberg - Munich

The first three are for sure nominations. Miller I'm fairly confident but that movie is so quiet and small he may be passed over in favor of Fernando Meirelles, Peter Jackson, or David Cronenberg. The same is true for Spielberg. Poor James Mangold.

So there you have it. I'm hoping for some kind of epic surprise as always, and after Giamatti being left off the Best Actor list for Sidewise last year it sure is a possibility. I'll be back later today with some reaction to the real nominations.